HopLan 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Mythloss 2:13series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:13
Strael Bora#239 in the world · win 13:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMyth ban
50%43%
Myth · 0 mapsedge Myth +7%Strael Bora · 3 maps
NukeMyth ban
50%57%
Myth · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +7%Strael Bora · 3 maps
AnubisStrael Bora ban
50%40%
Myth · 0 mapsedge Myth +10%Strael Bora · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
Myth · 0 mapsedge Myth +10%Strael Bora · 1 map
OverpassStrael Bora ban
50%40%
Myth · 0 mapsedge Myth +10%Strael Bora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMyth remove Nuke
2. BanStrael Bora remove Overpass
3. BanMyth remove Ancient
4. BanStrael Bora remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Myth 57%Strael Bora 43%
The model gave 57% on Myth — the map was taken by Strael Bora.
Model check result
Model favoriteStrael Bora · 67%
Series resultStrael Bora 2:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1