Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFOKUS ban
33%56%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge Acend +23%Acend · 23 maps
Dust2FOKUS ban
67%53%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge FOKUS +14%Acend · 15 maps
AncientFOKUS pick
53%47%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge FOKUS +6%Acend · 13 maps
InfernoAcend pick
56%65%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge Acend +9%Acend · 13 maps
OverpassAcend ban
67%36%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge FOKUS +31%Acend · 10 maps
NukeAcend ban
38%50%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge Acend +12%Acend · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%43%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +24%Acend · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickAcend take Inferno
5. BanAcend remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Dust2
DeciderCache (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
FOKUS 38%Acend 62%
The model gave 62% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
FOKUS 75%Acend 25%
The model gave 75% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
FOKUS 64%Acend 36%
The model gave 64% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 51%
Series resultAcend 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3