?
arrow_backBack to match
Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
53%50%
Inner Circle · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Iberian Soul · 2 maps
AncientInner Circle pick
69%43%
Inner Circle · 9 mapsedge Inner Circle +26%Iberian Soul · 3 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
73%50%
Inner Circle · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle +23%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
60%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
OverpassIberian Soul pick
56%50%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +6%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%71%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +21%Iberian Soul · 3 maps
AnubisIberian Soul ban
67%50%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +17%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle take Ancient
4. PickIberian Soul take Overpass
5. BanIberian Soul remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Inner Circle 47%Iberian Soul 53%
The model gave 53% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
Inner Circle 69%Iberian Soul 31%
The model gave 69% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Inner Circle 75%Iberian Soul 25%
The model gave 75% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 58%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3