Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sashi#91 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
52%33%
Virtus.pro · 17 mapsedge Virtus.pro +19%Sashi · 14 maps
NukeVirtus.pro pick
71%47%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%Sashi · 11 maps
MirageSashi ban
63%40%
Virtus.pro · 15 mapsedge Virtus.pro +23%Sashi · 1 map
AncientVirtus.pro ban
64%50%
Virtus.pro · 7 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%Sashi · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
64%67%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Sashi · 2 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
50%63%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge Sashi +13%Sashi · 4 maps
CacheSashi pick
57%73%
Virtus.pro · 3 mapsedge Sashi +16%Sashi · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
2. BanSashi remove Mirage
3. PickVirtus.pro take Nuke
4. PickSashi take Cache
5. BanSashi remove Dust2
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (64% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
Virtus.pro 31%Sashi 69%
The model gave 69% on Sashi — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Virtus.pro 71%Sashi 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Sashi.
Nukeprediction missed3:13
Virtus.pro 74%Sashi 26%
The model gave 74% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 52%
Series resultSashi 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3