Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BIG#27 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
64%64%
Eternal Fire · 10 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
58%36%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +22%BIG · 7 maps
Dust2BIG ban
53%50%
Eternal Fire · 11 mapsnearly even +3%BIG · 2 maps
NukeBIG ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 4 maps
AnubisBIG pick
50%60%
Eternal Fire · 6 mapsedge BIG +10%BIG · 1 map
InfernoEternal Fire ban
40%60%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge BIG +20%BIG · 6 maps
OverpassEternal Fire ban
57%43%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +14%BIG · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanBIG remove Dust2
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickBIG take Anubis
5. BanBIG remove Nuke
6. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (58% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Eternal Fire 73%BIG 27%
The model gave 73% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by BIG.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Eternal Fire 28%BIG 72%
The model gave 72% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 71%
Series resultBIG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2