Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
60%68%
HEROIC · 6 mapsedge ASTRAL +8%ASTRAL · 21 map
Dust2HEROIC pick
54%50%
HEROIC · 9 mapsnearly even +4%ASTRAL · 12 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
43%36%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
54%43%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +11%ASTRAL · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%55%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge ASTRAL +5%ASTRAL · 7 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%57%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
29%50%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
6. BanHEROIC remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
HEROIC 26%ASTRAL 74%
The model gave 74% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
HEROIC 48%ASTRAL 52%
The model gave 52% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 68%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2