BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN Academy#286 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
64%44%
ALKA · 10 mapsedge ALKA +20%paiN Academy · 12 maps
MiragepaiN Academy pick
50%42%
ALKA · 6 mapsedge ALKA +8%paiN Academy · 15 maps
NukepaiN Academy ban
50%36%
ALKA · 8 mapsedge ALKA +14%paiN Academy · 7 maps
InfernoALKA ban
56%45%
ALKA · 5 mapsedge ALKA +11%paiN Academy · 7 maps
AncientpaiN Academy ban
58%40%
ALKA · 8 mapsedge ALKA +18%paiN Academy · 1 map
AnubisALKA ban
40%55%
ALKA · 1 mapedge paiN Academy +15%paiN Academy · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%44%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge ALKA +6%paiN Academy · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN Academy remove Ancient
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickpaiN Academy take Mirage
5. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
6. BanALKA remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
ALKA 66%paiN Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Mirageprediction correct19:16
ALKA 55%paiN Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 68%
Series resultALKA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2