StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVitality ban
50%60%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 16 maps
Dust2Vitality pick
62%36%
Vitality · 9 mapsedge Vitality +26%magic · 7 maps
Cachemagic pick
57%73%
Vitality · 3 mapsedge magic +16%magic · 7 maps
MirageVitality ban
38%50%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge magic +12%magic · 6 maps
Anubismagic ban
33%50%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%57%
Vitality · 3 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 3 maps
Nukemagic ban
60%50%
Vitality · 6 mapsedge Vitality +10%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. Pickmagic take Cache
5. Banmagic remove Anubis
6. BanVitality remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Vitality 35%magic 65%
The model gave 65% on magic — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Vitality 76%magic 24%
The model gave 76% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 74%
Series resultVitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2