StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
44%56%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Aurora +12%Aurora · 5 maps
MirageNatus Vincere pick
57%55%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Aurora · 7 maps
AnubisAurora pick
60%64%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapnearly even -4%Aurora · 7 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
60%70%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 6 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
50%44%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%Aurora · 5 maps
AncientAurora ban
29%40%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Aurora +11%Aurora · 1 map
CacheAurora ban
50%50%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickNatus Vincere take Mirage
4. PickAurora take Anubis
5. BanAurora remove Cache
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (44% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Natus Vincere 36%Aurora 64%
The model gave 64% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Natus Vincere 56%Aurora 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 52%
Series resultAurora 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2