NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ROUNDS ban
50%63%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +13%Inner Circle Academy · 12 maps
AncientInner Circle Academy pick
43%58%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +15%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
43%45%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Inner Circle Academy · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
38%63%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +25%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%40%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
AnubisROUNDS ban
50%71%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +21%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
71%50%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +21%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickROUNDS take Default
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Ancient
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanROUNDS remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (38% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
ROUNDS 35%Inner Circle Academy 65%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
ROUNDS 53%Inner Circle Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 53%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2