Intel EPIC48 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#226 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGlitchtech UK ban
50%40%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +10%Glitchtech UK · 1 map
NukePrivateer pick
50%40%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +10%Glitchtech UK · 1 map
AnubisPrivateer ban
50%67%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge Glitchtech UK +17%Glitchtech UK · 2 maps
Dust2Glitchtech UK pick
60%60%
Privateer · 1 mapnearly even +0%Glitchtech UK · 1 map
CacheGlitchtech UK ban
40%50%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Glitchtech UK +10%Glitchtech UK · 0 maps
MiragePrivateer ban
50%60%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge Glitchtech UK +10%Glitchtech UK · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
2. BanGlitchtech UK remove Cache
3. PickPrivateer take Nuke
4. PickGlitchtech UK take Dust2
5. BanGlitchtech UK remove Ancient
6. BanPrivateer remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Privateer 37%Glitchtech UK 63%
The model gave 63% on Glitchtech UK — the map was taken by Privateer.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Privateer 63%Glitchtech UK 37%
The model gave 63% on Privateer — the map was taken by Privateer.
Model check result
Model favoritePrivateer · 58%
Series resultPrivateer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2