DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ground Zero#139 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FlyQuest ban
60%44%
FlyQuest · 6 mapsedge FlyQuest +16%Ground Zero · 12 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
63%65%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Ground Zero · 13 maps
AnubisFlyQuest pick
67%42%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +25%Ground Zero · 8 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
33%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge Ground Zero +17%Ground Zero · 10 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
60%44%
FlyQuest · 6 mapsedge FlyQuest +16%Ground Zero · 5 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
43%50%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
6. BanFlyQuest remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
FlyQuest 63%Ground Zero 37%
The model gave 63% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
FlyQuest 76%Ground Zero 24%
The model gave 76% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 84%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2