Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 3:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:0
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHEROIC pick
36%31%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +5%K27 · 9 maps
MirageK27 pick
33%62%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge K27 +29%K27 · 9 maps
AncientK27 pick
60%64%
HEROIC · 1 mapnearly even -4%K27 · 10 maps
Dust2HEROIC pick
60%67%
HEROIC · 6 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 5 maps
InfernoK27 ban
42%50%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge K27 +8%K27 · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%60%
HEROIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%K27 · 6 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%43%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +7%K27 · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. PickHEROIC take Nuke
6. PickK27 take Ancient
DeciderOverpass (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
HEROIC 59%K27 41%
The model gave 59% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
HEROIC 22%K27 78%
The model gave 78% on K27 — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
HEROIC 46%K27 54%
The model gave 54% on K27 — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 58%
Series resultHEROIC 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3