StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
57%50%
MOUZ · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +7%FURIA · 10 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
38%50%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge FURIA +12%FURIA · 8 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
77%50%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +27%FURIA · 8 maps
NukeFURIA pick
67%64%
MOUZ · 8 mapsnearly even +3%FURIA · 7 maps
CacheFURIA ban
43%45%
MOUZ · 3 mapsnearly even -2%FURIA · 7 maps
InfernoFURIA ban
78%50%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +28%FURIA · 4 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%29%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +21%FURIA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanFURIA remove Inferno
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickFURIA take Nuke
5. BanFURIA remove Cache
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
MOUZ 44%FURIA 56%
The model gave 56% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Mirageprediction correct19:16
MOUZ 79%FURIA 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
MOUZ 53%FURIA 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 54%
Series resultFURIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3