StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NRG#30 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMIBR pick
67%45%
MIBR · 11 mapsedge MIBR +22%NRG · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%73%
MIBR · 11 mapsedge NRG +20%NRG · 7 maps
CacheNRG pick
60%73%
MIBR · 6 mapsedge NRG +13%NRG · 11 maps
MirageNRG ban
50%55%
MIBR · 10 mapsedge NRG +5%NRG · 7 maps
AncientMIBR ban
46%55%
MIBR · 9 mapsedge NRG +9%NRG · 7 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%78%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge NRG +28%NRG · 5 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%50%
MIBR · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NRG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanNRG remove Anubis
3. PickMIBR take Inferno
4. PickNRG take Cache
5. BanNRG remove Mirage
6. BanMIBR remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (53% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
MIBR 33%NRG 67%
The model gave 67% on NRG — the map was taken by MIBR.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
MIBR 73%NRG 27%
The model gave 73% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 71%
Series resultMIBR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2