StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%46%
MIBR · 10 mapsnearly even +4%FURIA · 9 maps
NukeFURIA pick
53%67%
MIBR · 11 mapsedge FURIA +14%FURIA · 8 maps
AncientMIBR ban
46%50%
MIBR · 9 mapsnearly even -4%FURIA · 8 maps
InfernoMIBR pick
69%50%
MIBR · 12 mapsedge MIBR +19%FURIA · 4 maps
CacheFURIA ban
64%50%
MIBR · 7 mapsedge MIBR +14%FURIA · 8 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%50%
MIBR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FURIA · 10 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
50%29%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +21%FURIA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanFURIA remove Anubis
3. PickMIBR take Inferno
4. PickFURIA take Nuke
5. BanFURIA remove Cache
6. BanMIBR remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
MIBR 57%FURIA 43%
The model gave 57% on MIBR — the map was taken by FURIA.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
MIBR 34%FURIA 66%
The model gave 66% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 83%
Series resultFURIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2