NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#136 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
56%47%
ex-RUSTEC · 28 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +9%Misa · 28 maps
AnubisMisa pick
63%52%
ex-RUSTEC · 20 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%Misa · 23 maps
NukeMisa ban
43%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsedge Misa +7%Misa · 16 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
47%42%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +5%Misa · 22 maps
MirageMisa ban
60%48%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +12%Misa · 19 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
47%53%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsedge Misa +6%Misa · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +23%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderDefault (56% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:16
ex-RUSTEC 40%Misa 60%
The model gave 60% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
ex-RUSTEC 64%Misa 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
ex-RUSTEC 59%Misa 41%
The model gave 59% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 56%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3