Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
benched gods#149 in the worldseries probability
36%64%
probability at match start
Bushido Wildcats#84 in the worldThe prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
56%72%
benched gods · 5 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +16%Bushido Wildcats · 28 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
38%64%
benched gods · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +26%Bushido Wildcats · 18 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
50%43%
benched gods · 0 mapsedge benched gods +7%Bushido Wildcats · 17 maps
Anubispossible decider
36%58%
benched gods · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +22%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
67%50%
benched gods · 8 mapsedge benched gods +17%Bushido Wildcats · 6 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
57%55%
benched gods · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Bushido Wildcats · 7 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
50%40%
benched gods · 8 mapsedge benched gods +10%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. Pickbenched gods take Cache
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
6. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (36% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 64%