WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UPGRADE#74 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
67%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 20 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%UPGRADE · 2 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
55%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 16 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%UPGRADE · 6 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
38%44%
Nuclear TigeRES · 17 mapsedge UPGRADE +6%UPGRADE · 5 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
47%38%
Nuclear TigeRES · 11 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +9%UPGRADE · 4 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
81%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +21%UPGRADE · 1 map
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
20%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge UPGRADE +20%UPGRADE · 1 map
CacheUPGRADE ban
63%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +23%UPGRADE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
5. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Nuclear TigeRES 41%UPGRADE 59%
The model gave 59% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
Nuclear TigeRES 74%UPGRADE 26%
The model gave 74% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
Nuclear TigeRES 45%UPGRADE 55%
The model gave 55% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 68%
Series resultUPGRADE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3