WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BET-M#79 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
52%15%
Nemesis · 17 mapsedge Nemesis +37%BET-M · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
65%38%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Nemesis +27%BET-M · 12 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
43%56%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge BET-M +13%BET-M · 12 maps
NukeNemesis pick
62%56%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +6%BET-M · 12 maps
MirageNemesis ban
57%50%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +7%BET-M · 8 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%60%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge BET-M +10%BET-M · 6 maps
CacheBET-M ban
56%50%
Nemesis · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +6%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanBET-M remove Cache
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickBET-M take Inferno
5. BanBET-M remove Ancient
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (65% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
Nemesis 52%BET-M 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 87%BET-M 13%
The model gave 87% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 65%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2