WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#132 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientButterfly pick
63%50%
Butterfly · 12 mapsedge Butterfly +13%HyperSpace · 0 maps
NukeButterfly ban
60%50%
Butterfly · 11 mapsedge Butterfly +10%HyperSpace · 0 maps
Dust2HyperSpace pick
57%50%
Butterfly · 10 mapsedge Butterfly +7%HyperSpace · 0 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
23%50%
Butterfly · 9 mapsedge HyperSpace +27%HyperSpace · 0 maps
MirageHyperSpace ban
67%50%
Butterfly · 8 mapsedge Butterfly +17%HyperSpace · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
63%50%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +13%HyperSpace · 0 maps
CacheHyperSpace ban
71%50%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +21%HyperSpace · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Inferno
2. BanHyperSpace remove Cache
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickHyperSpace take Dust2
5. BanHyperSpace remove Mirage
6. BanButterfly remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Butterfly 64%HyperSpace 36%
The model gave 64% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Butterfly 63%HyperSpace 37%
The model gave 63% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 75%
Series resultButterfly 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2