WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BET-M#62 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
50%20%
Nemiga · 18 mapsedge Nemiga +30%BET-M · 11 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
58%41%
Nemiga · 15 mapsedge Nemiga +17%BET-M · 13 maps
NukeBET-M pick
60%53%
Nemiga · 11 mapsedge Nemiga +7%BET-M · 13 maps
Miragepossible decider
75%57%
Nemiga · 12 mapsedge Nemiga +18%BET-M · 10 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
69%60%
Nemiga · 12 mapsedge Nemiga +9%BET-M · 6 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%59%
Nemiga · 1 mapnearly even +1%BET-M · 13 maps
CacheBET-M ban
67%50%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +17%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanBET-M remove Cache
3. PickNemiga take Anubis
4. PickBET-M take Nuke
5. BanBET-M remove Ancient
6. BanNemiga remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (75% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Nemiga 54%BET-M 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Nemiga 82%BET-M 18%
The model gave 82% on Nemiga — the map was taken by BET-M.
Anubisprediction correct25:23
Nemiga 59%BET-M 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 65%
Series resultNemiga 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3