WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
50%61%
WW · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +11%Nemesis · 14 maps
AncientWW ban
50%55%
WW · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +5%Nemesis · 18 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%57%
WW · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Nemesis · 10 maps
NukeNemesis pick
57%67%
WW · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +10%Nemesis · 11 maps
InfernoNemesis ban
60%47%
WW · 1 mapedge WW +13%Nemesis · 11 maps
CacheWW ban
38%56%
WW · 4 mapsedge Nemesis +18%Nemesis · 5 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%50%
WW · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Nemesis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Inferno
6. BanWW remove Cache
DeciderMirage (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
WW 53%Nemesis 47%
The model gave 53% on WW — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
WW 42%Nemesis 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 64%
Series resultNemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2