NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
44%67%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +23%SAW Youngsters · 2 maps
DefaultSAW Youngsters ban
60%40%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Vexar +20%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
InfernoSAW Youngsters pick
43%75%
Vexar · 3 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +32%SAW Youngsters · 4 maps
MirageVexar ban
33%50%
Vexar · 2 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +17%SAW Youngsters · 4 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
50%60%
Vexar · 2 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +10%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
NukeSAW Youngsters ban
60%50%
Vexar · 1 mapedge Vexar +10%SAW Youngsters · 2 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%60%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +10%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Mirage
2. BanSAW Youngsters remove Nuke
3. PickVexar take Dust2
4. PickSAW Youngsters take Inferno
5. BanSAW Youngsters remove Default
6. BanVexar remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (44% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Vexar 31%SAW Youngsters 69%
The model gave 69% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by Vexar.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Vexar 18%SAW Youngsters 82%
The model gave 82% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW Youngsters · 55%
Series resultVexar 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2