DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMindfreak pick
57%60%
Mindfreak · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Ground Zero · 11 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
50%47%
Mindfreak · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Ground Zero · 11 maps
MirageGround Zero ban
40%50%
Mindfreak · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 10 maps
InfernoGround Zero pick
50%50%
Mindfreak · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 4 maps
AnubisGround Zero ban
50%30%
Mindfreak · 0 mapsedge Mindfreak +20%Ground Zero · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
2. BanGround Zero remove Anubis
3. PickMindfreak take Nuke
4. PickGround Zero take Inferno
5. BanGround Zero remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Mindfreak 53%Ground Zero 47%
The model gave 53% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
Mindfreak 67%Ground Zero 33%
The model gave 67% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Mindfreak 47%Ground Zero 53%
The model gave 53% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 63%
Series resultGround Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3