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DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFlyQuest pick
67%73%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +6%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 11 maps
InfernoTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
60%58%
FlyQuest · 6 mapsnearly even +2%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
56%50%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +6%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
57%60%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsnearly even -3%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 6 maps
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
43%50%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +7%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
33%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
50%40%
FlyQuest · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Inferno
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
6. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
FlyQuest 58%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 42%
The model gave 58% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
FlyQuest 44%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 56%
The model gave 56% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 70%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2