DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
56%57%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Mindfreak · 3 maps
AnubisFlyQuest pick
67%50%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
56%50%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +6%Mindfreak · 0 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
50%67%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge Mindfreak +17%Mindfreak · 2 maps
AncientMindfreak ban
43%50%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge Mindfreak +7%Mindfreak · 0 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
33%40%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge Mindfreak +7%Mindfreak · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Ancient
6. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
FlyQuest 31%Mindfreak 69%
The model gave 69% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
FlyQuest 51%Mindfreak 49%
The model gave 51% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 86%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2