Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientK27 pick
43%62%
3DMAX · 3 mapsedge K27 +19%K27 · 9 maps
NukeK27 ban
40%33%
3DMAX · 1 mapedge 3DMAX +7%K27 · 8 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%58%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge K27 +8%K27 · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
38%43%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge K27 +5%K27 · 3 maps
Dust23DMAX pick
50%67%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge K27 +17%K27 · 5 maps
Overpass3DMAX ban
50%60%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 6 maps
InfernoK27 ban
33%50%
3DMAX · 5 mapsedge K27 +17%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. Pick3DMAX take Dust2
4. PickK27 take Ancient
5. BanK27 remove Nuke
6. Ban3DMAX remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (38% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
3DMAX 29%K27 71%
The model gave 71% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction missed6:13
3DMAX 53%K27 47%
The model gave 53% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 61%
Series resultK27 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2