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Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
69%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +29%HEROIC · 6 maps
AncientHEROIC pick
44%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 12 mapsedge HEROIC +16%HEROIC · 1 map
MirageHEROIC ban
60%25%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +35%HEROIC · 4 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
67%36%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +31%HEROIC · 7 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +27%HEROIC · 6 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge HEROIC +6%HEROIC · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickHEROIC take Ancient
5. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 76%HEROIC 24%
The model gave 76% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 79%HEROIC 21%
The model gave 79% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 82%HEROIC 18%
The model gave 82% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 66%
Series resultHEROIC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3