Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Revise#160 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Revise ban
55%57%
Honvéd · 29 mapsnearly even -2%Revise · 3 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
52%63%
Honvéd · 25 mapsedge Revise +11%Revise · 4 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
50%57%
Honvéd · 14 mapsedge Revise +7%Revise · 3 maps
CacheRevise ban
50%33%
Honvéd · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Revise · 2 maps
InfernoRevise pick
33%50%
Honvéd · 8 mapsedge Revise +17%Revise · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
70%60%
Honvéd · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Revise · 1 map
AnubisHonvéd ban
44%60%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Revise +16%Revise · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
2. BanRevise remove Cache
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. PickRevise take Inferno
5. BanRevise remove Dust2
6. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (70% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Honvéd 50%Revise 50%
The model gave 50% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Mirageprediction missed25:23
Honvéd 36%Revise 64%
The model gave 64% on Revise — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 66%
Series resultHonvéd 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2