Esports World Cup 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
FUT#8 in the world · loss 1:3series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Spirit#1 in the world · win 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FUT ban
40%67%
FUT · 6 mapsedge Spirit +27%Spirit · 14 maps
MirageSpirit pick
67%69%
FUT · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Spirit · 12 maps
AncientFUT pick
73%75%
FUT · 11 mapsnearly even -2%Spirit · 4 maps
AnubisFUT pick
71%73%
FUT · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Spirit · 7 maps
NukeSpirit pick
25%50%
FUT · 4 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
38%33%
FUT · 4 mapsedge FUT +5%Spirit · 2 maps
CacheSpirit ban
50%43%
FUT · 0 mapsedge FUT +7%Spirit · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFUT remove Dust2
2. BanSpirit remove Cache
3. PickFUT take Ancient
4. PickSpirit take Mirage
5. PickFUT take Anubis
6. PickSpirit take Nuke
DeciderOverpass (38% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
FUT 60%Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
FUT 45%Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
FUT 51%Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on FUT — the map was taken by Spirit.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
FUT 23%Spirit 77%
The model gave 77% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 82%
Series resultSpirit 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 4