ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSecret pick
50%40%
PRISONBREAK · 0 mapsedge PRISONBREAK +10%Secret · 1 map
CacheSecret ban
50%60%
PRISONBREAK · 0 mapsedge Secret +10%Secret · 1 map
Dust2Secret ban
60%50%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapedge PRISONBREAK +10%Secret · 0 maps
InfernoPRISONBREAK ban
50%60%
PRISONBREAK · 0 mapsedge Secret +10%Secret · 1 map
MiragePRISONBREAK pick
60%50%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapedge PRISONBREAK +10%Secret · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRISONBREAK remove Inferno
2. BanSecret remove Dust2
3. PickPRISONBREAK take Mirage
4. PickSecret take Ancient
5. BanSecret remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
PRISONBREAK 47%Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Secret — the map was taken by PRISONBREAK.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
PRISONBREAK 63%Secret 37%
The model gave 63% on PRISONBREAK — the map was taken by Secret.
Cacheprediction correct4:13
PRISONBREAK 40%Secret 60%
The model gave 60% on Secret — the map was taken by Secret.
Model check result
Model favoritePRISONBREAK · 50%
Series resultSecret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3