ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WXMloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WXM pick
50%60%
Nas · 4 mapsedge WXM +10%WXM · 1 map
AncientNas pick
50%50%
Nas · 4 mapsnearly even +0%WXM · 0 maps
NukeWXM ban
50%50%
Nas · 4 mapsnearly even +0%WXM · 0 maps
MirageNas ban
50%60%
Nas · 2 mapsedge WXM +10%WXM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Mirage
2. BanWXM remove Nuke
3. PickNas take Ancient
4. PickWXM take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Nas 37%WXM 63%
The model gave 63% on WXM — the map was taken by WXM.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Nas 53%WXM 47%
The model gave 53% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Nas 50%WXM 50%
The model gave 50% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 55%
Series resultNas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3