1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GamerLegion#19 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
59%44%
magic · 18 mapsedge magic +15%GamerLegion · 5 maps
Dust2magic ban
38%50%
magic · 9 mapsedge GamerLegion +12%GamerLegion · 4 maps
MirageGamerLegion ban
50%22%
magic · 8 mapsedge magic +28%GamerLegion · 5 maps
CacheGamerLegion pick
73%71%
magic · 7 mapsnearly even +2%GamerLegion · 3 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%GamerLegion · 6 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
44%50%
magic · 5 mapsedge GamerLegion +6%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +0%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickGamerLegion take Cache
5. BanGamerLegion remove Mirage
6. Banmagic remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
magic 41%GamerLegion 59%
The model gave 59% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by magic.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
magic 49%GamerLegion 51%
The model gave 51% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Ancientprediction correct19:17
magic 64%GamerLegion 36%
The model gave 64% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 52%
Series resultmagic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3