1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGamerLegion pick
50%40%
3DMAX · 14 mapsedge 3DMAX +10%GamerLegion · 6 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
58%75%
3DMAX · 15 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%GamerLegion · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
65%44%
3DMAX · 13 mapsedge 3DMAX +21%GamerLegion · 5 maps
Nuke3DMAX ban
38%50%
3DMAX · 12 mapsedge GamerLegion +12%GamerLegion · 6 maps
InfernoGamerLegion ban
47%50%
3DMAX · 15 mapsnearly even -3%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%22%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +28%GamerLegion · 5 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
43%50%
3DMAX · 3 mapsedge GamerLegion +7%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickGamerLegion take Ancient
5. BanGamerLegion remove Inferno
6. Ban3DMAX remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (65% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
3DMAX 57%GamerLegion 43%
The model gave 57% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
3DMAX 72%GamerLegion 28%
The model gave 72% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
3DMAX 31%GamerLegion 69%
The model gave 69% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 53%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3