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1win Private Club Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 3:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 3:1
GamerLegion#19 in the world · loss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNinjas in Pyjamas pick
52%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 mapsnearly even +2%GamerLegion · 8 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
71%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +21%GamerLegion · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%30%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +14%GamerLegion · 6 maps
CacheGamerLegion pick
33%82%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge GamerLegion +49%GamerLegion · 7 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge GamerLegion +7%GamerLegion · 6 maps
InfernoGamerLegion pick
54%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsnearly even +4%GamerLegion · 0 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge GamerLegion +6%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickGamerLegion take Cache
5. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Ancient
6. PickGamerLegion take Inferno
DeciderMirage (44% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed19:17
Ninjas in Pyjamas 49%GamerLegion 51%
The model gave 51% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
Ninjas in Pyjamas 74%GamerLegion 26%
The model gave 74% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
Ninjas in Pyjamas 9%GamerLegion 91%
The model gave 91% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 68%GamerLegion 32%
The model gave 68% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 72%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 4