DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 13:7series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 13:7
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeArcade ban
57%50%
Ground Zero · 10 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Arcade · 0 maps
MirageArcade ban
54%50%
Ground Zero · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Arcade · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
45%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Arcade +5%Arcade · 0 maps
AnubisGround Zero ban
38%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge Arcade +12%Arcade · 0 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
50%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Arcade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Anubis
2. BanArcade remove Nuke
3. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
4. BanArcade remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Ground Zero 45%Arcade 55%
The model gave 55% on Arcade — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 63%
Series resultGround Zero 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1