DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 13:5series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 13:5
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisMindfreak ban
69%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 9 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +19%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Dust2THUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
45%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 mapsedge Mindfreak +5%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +5%Mindfreak · 0 maps
NukeMindfreak ban
56%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +6%Mindfreak · 0 maps
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 0 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
40%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
2. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
3. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
4. BanMindfreak remove Nuke
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 55%Mindfreak 45%
The model gave 55% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 80%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1