DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 2:13series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:13
Rooster#196 in the world · win 13:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAbyssal ban
56%63%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge Rooster +7%Rooster · 4 maps
MirageRooster ban
56%63%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge Rooster +7%Rooster · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%38%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge Abyssal +12%Rooster · 4 maps
OverpassRooster ban
57%29%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +28%Rooster · 3 maps
Dust2Abyssal ban
50%56%
Abyssal · 0 mapsedge Rooster +6%Rooster · 5 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%71%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Rooster +31%Rooster · 3 maps
DefaultRooster ban
60%33%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +27%Rooster · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
2. BanRooster remove Overpass
3. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
4. BanRooster remove Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
6. BanRooster remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct2:13
Abyssal 43%Rooster 57%
The model gave 57% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 68%
Series resultRooster 2:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1