Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGentle Mates pick
40%71%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge Gentle Mates +31%Gentle Mates · 10 maps
NukeGentle Mates ban
67%41%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +26%Gentle Mates · 13 maps
MirageNinjas in Pyjamas pick
60%54%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +6%Gentle Mates · 9 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
67%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Gentle Mates · 12 maps
AnubisGentle Mates ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Gentle Mates +6%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%57%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanGentle Mates remove Nuke
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Mirage
4. PickGentle Mates take Ancient
5. BanGentle Mates remove Anubis
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 19%Gentle Mates 81%
The model gave 81% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Ninjas in Pyjamas 76%Gentle Mates 24%
The model gave 76% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 59%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2