European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
43%57%
Walczaki · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +14%SPARTA · 26 maps
NukeWalczaki pick
61%50%
Walczaki · 27 mapsedge Walczaki +11%SPARTA · 14 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
67%35%
Walczaki · 17 mapsedge Walczaki +32%SPARTA · 16 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
71%50%
Walczaki · 10 mapsedge Walczaki +21%SPARTA · 16 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
67%50%
Walczaki · 17 mapsedge Walczaki +17%SPARTA · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
Walczaki · 11 mapsedge Walczaki +10%SPARTA · 8 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%45%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +12%SPARTA · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Walczaki 81%SPARTA 19%
The model gave 81% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Cacheprediction correct14:16
Walczaki 47%SPARTA 53%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Walczaki 60%SPARTA 40%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 72%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3