NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMisa ban
42%40%
Entropy · 15 mapsnearly even +2%Misa · 11 maps
Dust2Misa pick
40%57%
Entropy · 6 mapsedge Misa +17%Misa · 17 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%46%
Entropy · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Misa · 9 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
44%40%
Entropy · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Misa · 6 maps
NukeEntropy ban
40%43%
Entropy · 1 mapnearly even -3%Misa · 10 maps
AncientMisa ban
46%50%
Entropy · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 0 maps
CacheEntropy pick
67%60%
Entropy · 5 mapsedge Entropy +7%Misa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Cache
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanEntropy remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Entropy 31%Misa 69%
The model gave 69% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Entropy 60%Misa 40%
The model gave 60% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
Entropy 52%Misa 48%
The model gave 52% on Entropy — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 51%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3