CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · win 1:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
43%30%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +13%megoshort · 6 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
50%33%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +17%megoshort · 5 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
50%44%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +6%megoshort · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%60%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge megoshort +17%megoshort · 1 map
Infernomegoshort ban
43%40%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsnearly even +3%megoshort · 1 map
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%megoshort · 0 maps
AnubisROUNDS ban
50%60%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge megoshort +10%megoshort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickROUNDS take Default
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
6. BanROUNDS remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ROUNDS 67%megoshort 33%
The model gave 67% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 51%
Series resultROUNDS 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1