CCT 2026 South America Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageALKA ban
44%50%
ALKA · 5 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +6%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%50%
ALKA · 5 mapsedge ALKA +6%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
Dust2ALKA pick
63%50%
ALKA · 4 mapsedge ALKA +13%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
AncientBORRACHEIROS ban
71%50%
ALKA · 3 mapsedge ALKA +21%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
InfernoBORRACHEIROS ban
57%50%
ALKA · 3 mapsedge ALKA +7%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
AnubisALKA ban
40%50%
ALKA · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +10%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
DefaultBORRACHEIROS pick
40%50%
ALKA · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +10%BORRACHEIROS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Anubis
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Ancient
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Default
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Inferno
6. BanALKA remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
ALKA 74%BORRACHEIROS 26%
The model gave 74% on ALKA — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
ALKA 54%BORRACHEIROS 46%
The model gave 54% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
ALKA 56%BORRACHEIROS 44%
The model gave 56% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 57%
Series resultALKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3