Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
38%50%
Vexar · 12 mapsedge Raccoons +12%Raccoons · 0 maps
DefaultRaccoons ban
60%50%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Vexar +10%Raccoons · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%50%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Vexar +6%Raccoons · 0 maps
MirageVexar ban
44%50%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Raccoons +6%Raccoons · 0 maps
AnubisRaccoons pick
38%50%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Raccoons +12%Raccoons · 0 maps
Dust2Raccoons ban
63%50%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Vexar +13%Raccoons · 0 maps
NukeVexar ban
38%50%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Raccoons +12%Raccoons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Mirage
2. BanRaccoons remove Dust2
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. PickRaccoons take Anubis
5. BanRaccoons remove Default
6. BanVexar remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Vexar 42%Raccoons 58%
The model gave 58% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Vexar 40%Raccoons 60%
The model gave 60% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Model check result
Model favoriteRaccoons · 50%
Series resultRaccoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2