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Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
63%60%
ALKA · 20 mapsnearly even +3%Turma do Pagode · 6 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
47%54%
ALKA · 15 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%43%
ALKA · 11 mapsedge ALKA +24%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
MirageALKA ban
50%50%
ALKA · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
55%40%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +15%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
50%60%
ALKA · 6 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +10%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
DefaultALKA ban
33%40%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Mirage
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
6. BanALKA remove Default
DeciderInferno (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
ALKA 41%Turma do Pagode 59%
The model gave 59% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
ALKA 56%Turma do Pagode 44%
The model gave 56% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
ALKA 73%Turma do Pagode 27%
The model gave 73% on ALKA — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 59%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3