Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
55%55%
paiN · 7 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 7 maps
InfernopaiN ban
38%50%
paiN · 9 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +12%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
NukepaiN pick
47%40%
paiN · 11 mapsedge paiN +7%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
50%57%
paiN · 0 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 10 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
45%50%
paiN · 7 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +5%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
CachepaiN ban
20%60%
paiN · 6 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +40%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
AnubisTurma do Pagode ban
40%40%
paiN · 1 mapnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Cache
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickpaiN take Nuke
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Anubis
6. BanpaiN remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (55% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
paiN 53%Turma do Pagode 47%
The model gave 53% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
paiN 47%Turma do Pagode 53%
The model gave 53% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 80%
Series resultpaiN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2