Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageImperial pick
72%50%
Imperial · 21 mapedge Imperial +22%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
65%56%
Imperial · 16 mapsedge Imperial +9%Bounty Hunters · 12 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
67%56%
Imperial · 11 mapsedge Imperial +11%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
67%50%
Imperial · 23 mapsedge Imperial +17%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
56%42%
Imperial · 14 mapsedge Imperial +14%Bounty Hunters · 8 maps
AnubisImperial ban
55%63%
Imperial · 7 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +8%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%31%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge Imperial +19%Bounty Hunters · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
6. BanImperial remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (65% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Imperial 70%Bounty Hunters 30%
The model gave 70% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
Imperial 64%Bounty Hunters 36%
The model gave 64% on Imperial — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Imperial 59%Bounty Hunters 41%
The model gave 59% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 79%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3