Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
63%54%
Fluxo · 26 mapsedge Fluxo +9%ShindeN · 9 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
53%63%
Fluxo · 11 mapsedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 12 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
50%58%
Fluxo · 14 mapsedge ShindeN +8%ShindeN · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
68%45%
Fluxo · 15 mapsedge Fluxo +23%ShindeN · 7 maps
CacheShindeN ban
50%36%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge Fluxo +14%ShindeN · 7 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
42%50%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge ShindeN +8%ShindeN · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%64%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +14%ShindeN · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickShindeN take Inferno
5. BanShindeN remove Cache
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (68% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Fluxo 38%ShindeN 62%
The model gave 62% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Fluxo 75%ShindeN 25%
The model gave 75% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Fluxo 60%ShindeN 40%
The model gave 60% on Fluxo — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 63%
Series resultShindeN 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3