Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
40%61%
EHISTO BASE · 1 mapedge Fluxo +21%Fluxo · 27 maps
MirageEHISTO BASE ban
40%70%
EHISTO BASE · 1 mapedge Fluxo +30%Fluxo · 16 maps
Dust2EHISTO BASE pick
50%50%
EHISTO BASE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 14 maps
InfernoEHISTO BASE ban
50%50%
EHISTO BASE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 12 maps
CacheFluxo ban
50%50%
EHISTO BASE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 10 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
50%42%
EHISTO BASE · 0 mapsedge EHISTO BASE +8%Fluxo · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
EHISTO BASE · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +10%Fluxo · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEHISTO BASE remove Inferno
2. BanFluxo remove Anubis
3. PickEHISTO BASE take Dust2
4. PickFluxo take Nuke
5. BanFluxo remove Cache
6. BanEHISTO BASE remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
EHISTO BASE 53%Fluxo 47%
The model gave 53% on EHISTO BASE — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
EHISTO BASE 27%Fluxo 73%
The model gave 73% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 70%
Series resultFluxo 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2